Trial Balloons Begin to Pop
It's only been four days since Gov. Jim Douglas (R) shocked Vermont's political world and announced he would not seek reelection in 2010.
Since then, this reporter's phone has been buzzing with calls from political insiders floating names of possible candidates who "would be great for the job," or by politicians themselves claiming they are "weighing their options" or "expressing an interest" in one of several possible statewide offices.
I say "possible," because it's not yet clear how many offices will open up as a result of Douglas' decision. It all really depends on whether Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (pictured) decides to run for governor, and if he does, who runs for his seat.
If Dubie opts to not run for governor, or even reelection, that would certainly open up the political floodgates in a way that didn't happen after U.S. Sen. Jim Jeffords (I) announced in April 2005 that he would not seek reelection in 2006.
After an initial flurry of speculation, then-U.S. Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) announced he would seek Jeffords' seat, opening up his lone post in the House. Douglas, wooed heavily by national Republicans to run for Congress, balked at taking on Sanders. Instead, businessman Rich Tarrant ended up taking one for the team. And how.
It was really the race to replace Sanders that became the hot ticket of the 2006 election cycle, as it became clear early that Sanders was going to walk away with the Senate race against Tarrant.
The House race involved former Adjutant General Martha Rainville, the Republican, and State Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D-Windsor). Rainville's decision, while opening up a post to be filled by a vote of the legislature, did not have a ripple effect in the political world. Welch's seat, too, opened up a county seat, not a statewide one.
The outcomes? Welch won the House seat, Dubie's brother Michael Dubie was elected Adjutant General, and Sens. Alice Nitka (D) and Dick McCormack (D) were elected to the state senate from Windsor County. That year, Democratic State Sen. Matt Dunne, also of Windsor County, ran and lost his bid to unseat incumbent Lt. Governor Dubie.
Today, we have a similar scenario at play.
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