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September 15, 2010

Shumlin Leads Dubie in Rasmussen Survey


* updated with comment from Shumlin campaign *

In the first survey of voters post-primary, Democrat Peter Shumlin is edging out Republican Brian Dubie by a 49-46 margin, according to a recent phone survey of Vermont voters conducted for Rasmussen Report.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey found only 2 percent of likely voters prefer some other candidate, and 3 percent are undecided.

Rasmussen considers the race currently a toss-up. This survey was conducted four days after the announcement of Shumlin’s recount victory, Rasmussen noted.

The pair held their first one-on-one debate Monday.

A June Rasmussen survey, found Dubie besting all challengers. In fact, Shumlin was one of the weaker Democratic candidates. At that time, Dubie led Shumlin 55 to 36 percent. In the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in March, Dubie held a similar 51 to 33 percent lead over Shumlin. 

Dubie draws support from 87 percent of Republicans, while Shumlin is backed by 83 percent of Democrats, the phone survey found. Dubie currently holds a 10-point lead over Shumlin among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

The survey of 500 likely voters in Vermont was conducted on September 13, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. 

The poll also found:

- 60 percent of Vermont voters view Shumlin as politically liberal, while Dubie is considered a conservative by 72 percent of voters.

- 58 percent regard Dubie’s views as mainstream, but just 44 percent say that of Shumlin’s.

- 35 percent believe Shumlin’s views are extreme, and 23 percent feel that way abut Dubie. Still, roughly one-in-five voters (20 percent) of voters are not sure where either candidate’s views lie.

On another key metric, Dubie is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent, including 31 percent who view him "very favorably" and 19 percent who view him "very unfavorably."

Shumlin is viewed favorably by 52 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 40 percent, including 24 percent "very favorable" and 26 percent "very unfavorable." 

* update below *

The Shumlin campaign issued this statement in response to the Rasmussen Reports survey:

"We are encouraged that only five days after being announced the Democratic nominee, it is clear that Peter's message of job creation and building up our middle class is resonating with Vermonters," said Alex MacLean, Shumlin's campaign manager.

"We recognize that the only poll that really matters is on election day and that is why Peter is looking forward to drawing the distinction between his plan of cutting taxes for the middle class and supporting our small businesses and Brian's plan of giving tax give aways to the wealthiest and reducing regulations for large out of state corporations," MacLean added.

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