Blurt: Seven Days Staff Blog

NOTE: Blurt has been retired and is no longer updated regularly. For new content, follow these links:

OFF MESSAGE: Vermont News and Politics
BITE CLUB: Food and Drink Blog

« The Final Countdown: Election 2010 | Main | Roadside DUI Video Shows Salmon Humbled, Yet Defiant »

October 31, 2010

Rasmussen Survey: Shumlin Leads Dubie 50-45 Percent

IMG_1582 In a new Rasmussen Reports survey of 750 likely Vermont voters, Democrat Peter Shumlin remains slightly ahead of  Republican Brian Dubie.

The report, just released to the public, shows Shumlin earning 50 percent of the likely vote and Dubie 45 percent. Three percent of those surveyed were undecided and only 1 percent said they were voting for another candidate.

The survey was conducted on October 28. It's the first survey conducted by Rasmussen since September, when Shumlin officially earned his party's nomination. In that poll, Shumlin led Dubie by three points, 49-46 — a result that fell within the margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Vermont Public Radio's "Vermont Poll" found Dubie edging Shumlin* by just 1 percentage point — a dead heat. That poll was conductd by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

This new Rasmussen Reports survey puts Shumlin's lead just outside the margin of error. Rasmussen's telephone surveys are often considered unreliable for two reasons: They often favor Republicans and are seen as less accurate than scientific polls conducted by real people. Rasmussen uses a touch-tone response system.

Shumlin continues to lead Dubie, too, in the "unfavorables" category. Of those polled, 46 percent said they had a somewhat or very unfavorable image of Shumlin (30 percent very unfavorable), while 44 percent said the same of Dubie (22 percent in each unfavorable category).

On the economy and jobs — one of the leading issues in this campaign — 48 percent say Dubie is trusted most to handle the issue, while 45 percent said Shumlin.

YeTo question "Which candidate for governor has a better plan for creating jobs in Vermont, Brian Dubie or Peter Shumlin?" the response was 44 percent for Shumlin and 42 percent for Dubie.

On taxes, 46 percent said Dubie was most trusted to handle the issue, while 45 percent said Shumlin.

Other survey findings: Forty-nine percent of Vermont voters rate their own personal finances as good or excellent, while 12 percent rate them as poor. Twenty-two percent say their finances are getting better, but 40 percent think they are getting worse.

Though Shumlin holds a 53 to 46 percent lead among voters who report their finances are improving, the candidates are virtually tied among those who say the opposite, the survey found.

The Dubie campaign was quick to claim the Rasmussen Reports finding means victory for the lieutenant governor on Tuesday.

His campaign pointed to a 2002 poll by Mason-Dixon that predicted Shumlin would win by two points. Dubie won the election by nine points. In that same poll, Democrat Doug Racine was said to be leading Republican Jim Douglas by 10 points. Douglas ended up winning by three points.

* Original post corrected: Results were transposed from VPR poll

Mason-Dixon VPR poll had Dubie leading Shumlin by 1 point.

I found it very interesting that the poll showed Peter Shumlin leading among those who had already voted (absentee ballot). He had over 56 percent to Dubie's 38% for those who had already voted.

I got a piece of mail from the Dubie campaign 2 weeks ago asking me if I wanted to vote early. By then, the Democrats were already halfway through their early vote program and I had already voted for Shumlin the week before via early vote.

This tells me that Dubie's people don't have the best ground game or are ignoring the early vote mechanism in voting. I haven't seen a Democratic organization like this since 2006 when Welch was running for the US House for the first time.

I think these results reflect what the real results will be on Election night albeit we will not know until early the next morning who our next Governor is...knowing Corry Bliss and the rest of Team Dubie -- they may sue to prevent the results from becoming real!

I will give my predictions on the statewide races as well as some local races on Monday. Right now it is now nap time.
Stay tuned for Monday as also included in my predictions will be the mayoral race in Burlington for March 2012.
Never to early to start the next electoral season.
I am sure everyone will sleep well tonight awaiting my predictions, because i am sure you do not care. Just remember though I was the one that picked Shumlin by a nose in the primary. I expect though neither party will burn the midnight oil awaiting my projections, though I expect neither campaign has much sleep built into their itinerary.

I am cautiously optimistic.

Thanks for the blathering Dale. You've outdone yourself.

Haik, I'm with you: cautiously optimistic Dubie will pull it off.

Fake Jimmy @ 8:41 PM

I predict that it's a tossup. I also predict that the result will not affect my life for good or bad, particularly if Shumlin wins, because he won't actually do anything. He's already backpedaling on single payer, and it's clear that he's going to let VY stay open.


How is it "clear", other than in your mind and on the blog of a low readership conservative blog, that Shumlin now plans to keep VY open? Please give us some facts. Additionally, what benefit would it give to Shumlin to go back on his word about VY? To pick up what, a handful of votes? Whats clear is that Doobie supporters are worried. Shumlin is picking up steam and the Dubster is campaigning straight out of Rove's playbook (along with his obnoxious out of state campaign manager Mr. Bliss).

I also think Dubie would be ineffectual. It's astounding he could lose this race. I guess people find him more ethically challenged than Shumlin.

My favorite response is from Dubie's campaign claiming this poll result means they will win. Only a genius like Cory Bliss could say " Well since Rasmussen said this in 2002, a result showing that we're loosing actually means we've already won!" As someone who works in finance, we have a very simple mantra to live by "Past performance is not indicative of future results." If someone as "smart" as Cory Bliss can't figure that out, they've already lost.

"How is it 'clear'... that Shumlin now plans to keep VY open?"

Because when 'CAX and 'PTZ asked him about it immediately after the story broke, he refused to deny it. Then his handlers obviously told him those non-denials were making him look as full of shit as he is, because he went back to claiming he'll shut it down no matter what.

If Shumlin wins it will be because enough simpletons think he's going to get them single payer health care, when if you listen to him closely he's started to say he's "not making any promises." But statements like "Vermont could create a system of public financing of health care that would provide all Vermonters with quality, affordable health care..." imply that all that is required to do so is will. In reality, it's essentially impossible, as eloquently explained by Jeanne Keller on this very blog. Shumlin's not an idiot, he knows that; but he also knows that most people don't. He's just trying to fool people, plain and simple.

BTW thanks for the compliment of continuing with the weak impersonation attempts, Fake Jimmy @ 9:57. A sure sign that I'm hitting a nerve somewhere, even if that nerve resides in a singularly unclever person.

@ Fake Jimmy:

"I guess people find him more ethically challenged than Shumlin."

You guess? Got any evidence for that? Frankly, it would be impossible.

Suggested headlines for November 3:

Dubie takes a hit!
Dubie smokes Shumlin!

The comments to this entry are closed.

Stuck in VT (VIDEOS)

Solid State (Music)

Mistress Maeve (Sex)

All Rights Reserved © Da Capo Publishing Inc. 1995-2012 | PO Box 1164, Burlington, VT 05402-1164 | 802-864-5684